Guru's Golden Picks: AFL Week 4

[AFLGuru]

Nice job GoBucks... reading my mind thoroughly with my first picks. I like the card this weekend folks. Lots of units to be won.

San Jose (-8) @ Los Angeles (4 units -105): I got this line the second it opened at -6.5, which is a GREAT number to have it at, but for record keeping purposes, 8 will be my number. Anything up to about 12.5 is good in my estimation. The Saberkitties have run into a rough stretch of games of late with the roadies to Tampa and New Orleans (and one with Orlando in three weeks!). This time their travels take them to Los Angeles, to face one of the worst teams in the AFL, despite their record. The records help us out a bit in this game, as San Jose is a game back in the West to both LV and LA... This division is turned quite upside down! LA is 2-1 ATS and San Jose is 1-2, but look for the Saberkitties to rip apart LA from the beginning in this one. The Sabercats are back at full strength with Hundon and Thomas back in the lineup, which should lead to an all around great game by the Sabercats, who need to get back in the win column badly.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans over 101 (3 units -105): Got this at 99 when it opened, but still a solid number. Vegas finally learns that New Orleans is a shoot out team after last week's debacle with San Jose. Philly wants to do the same. Andy Kelly is already looking at the prospects of being named offensive player of the year, and in the Graveyard, look for another game in the 110-120 range. Anything up to about 105.5 maybe 106 is still a good number to bet.

Orlando @ Dallas Under 98.5 (3 units -105): Here's what I'm going to say about this game.... DO NOT, and I repeat, DO NOT take Orlando. This is a MEGA trap game for the Preds. The high scoring game last week for the Preds is a very good omen for under in this one. We probably bought ourselves a free 4 points on this one because of it. HOWEVER... Dallas 35 - Columbus 31. Need I say more? Dallas' offense is really overrated after dropping 66 on Chicago, a very solid defense in week one. However, you can't prepare for this Orlando defense... They're too solid. Joe Hamilton is still making some poor decisions, which will surely end some drives. Both teams take in a lot of penalties, which will take several minutes off of this game. Anything over 93 or so is still good value.

7.5 point teaser: San Jose -1 / Chicago -3 (3 units -110): I liked this a bit better when I got Chicago -2 and San Jose -0.5, but it's still good. Regarding this Chicago game... CHAD SALISBURY faces his former team... Raymond Philyaw looks REAL good after that first quarter against Colorado. Etu Molden is still a beast for the Rush. Columbus simply isn't very good. I'm worried about a bit of a letdown in this game for the Rush after the close one with Colorado, but I think in the end, the class of teams will triumph... maybe not covering the full bit, but the Rush should have no problem winning this game. We saw how bad Columbus' offense was this past weekend once again, and I don't see it getting much better for the Destroyers. This Chicago team is much better than the Dallas team that Columbus just faced.

Slightly more information coming as I find some stats. Best of luck.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[gobucks]

Glad we are thinking alike Mr. Guru! There is money to be made on early Tuesday afternoon! Keep up the good work- your input is much appreciated!

 

[AFLGuru]

Please note, we're still missing the line for the Colorado/Arizona game on Saturday. May have another play off of that game.

--AFLGuru

 

[buzz21]

Newbie here...love seeing your AFL analysis !!!!!

 

[AFLGuru]

More on the New Orleans/Philly game...

Note that the number is now 106, which is on the cusp of solid.

Both New Orleans and Philly only take in 7.3 penalties a game, which is a relatively low number by AFL standards. This keeps the clock moving to a minimum. Having watched Philly, Tony Graziani runs a no huddle offense which also conserves time. New Orleans, with the exception of one drive in the 3rd quarter, took over 4 shots at over 20 yards per quarter against San Jose. Look for a lot of the same. Philly may be without the services of Crespina, who might getting suspended after punching a ref on Sunday. If this is the case, New Orleans will be looking at no one in the Philly secondary, who got torched by Nashville after Crespina got ejected. Especially if New Orleans gets ahead in this game, which is what I expect to happen, Philly will probably start sneaking around with onsiders in the 2nd half, leading to quick VooDoo scores. This game is another one of those that screams the possibility of 140 combined. But for reasonability's sake, I'll say I expect both team to reach the upper 50s in this one, and the winner to need 60 to win.

Get your best line... I'll offer more teaser options later in the week because these lines have inflated so much again.
--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[TheGeneral+]

There is a copy in the RR for arguing.

Good luck

 

[AFLGuru]

Thanks General.

--AFLGuru

 

[LakersFan4Life]

hey guru just wanted to take the time to say i wasnt really into the afl until i started reading your posts.you definately know what your talking about.keep it up gl to u tonight.

 

[geeze]

AflGuru,

We are separated in age by 54 years!

Nevertheless, I look to you for your leadersip, insights and selections in this little known and arcane sport.


You have given me profit, fun and excitement, which at my age are scarce commodities, indeed.

Thank you.

geeze.

 

[NorthBayVillage]

Guru,
Columbus released Chad Salisbury today. Just an FYI......I think Chicago still beats the Destroyers.

 

[Roxygurl]

AflGuru,

We are separated in age by 54 years!

Nevertheless, I look to you for your leadersip, insights and selections in this little known and arcane sport.


You have given me profit, fun and excitement, which at my age are scarce commodities, indeed.

Thank you.

geeze.

geeze i like older guys but hanging with you might kill ya big guy.lol.according to the genious jose canseco using steroids will make you live to 120. but your "boys" will shrink and your lovemuscle will grow.ya better do something because there might be a dark hooded guy holding a staff at your door.then no more viagara cocktails for you. glad you enjoy the afl its a great sport. ~RG

 

[TOMMYB]

Qb Change For Colum.

I AGREE WITH ROXY , IF YOU DONT KNOW THIS GUY AND HE MEANS NOTHING TO YOU , WHY WOULD YOU RESPOND TO HIM AND START A WAR OF WORDY . ALWAYS CONSIDER THE SOURCE BEFORE PUTTING THE MOUTH IN GEAR. OK , NOW ON TO THE IMPORTANT THINGS.


I SEE COLUM. CUT SALISBURY AND D'ORAZIO IS GETTING HIS 1st START , AND THEY ALSO PICKED UP VENA . HOW DOES THIS IMPACT YOUR OPINION ON THIS GAME AND A PREDICTED LINE MOVEMENT.

THANKS AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.

 

[geeze]

Roxy,

If it all becomes too much for me, I'll follow Kipling's advice:

"When you're wounded, and left on Afganistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up your remains,

Just roll to your rifle, and blow out your brains,
And go to your God like a soldier."

geeze.

PS to AFLGURU:

ALL THE WAY WITH SAN JOSE!!!

Good luck to us all.

 

[AFLGuru]

Can't get much worse than Chad Salisbury... Ryan Vena was pretty bad last year. To be honest with you, I know very little about D'Orazio, except that he was backing up Chad Salisbury, which can't be a good thing.

To respond to your post on Budworth's stupid thread, Roxy... Sorry that he's threatening to run you out of here... but to be honest, I'm probably done after this week as well. Too many people here are far too critical about a sport they know nothing about. When things are going well people are all about "thanks for the cash" and all of that... But when things are going bad, people can be vultures as well, and don't realize that it's a long haul, even longer than any given season. I'll continue emailing those of you that I can get a hold of, but I am going to seriously consider not wasting my time here anymore either. I can't blame you Roxy... but the people taking digs in on this board are starting to get on my nerves. I told my roommate (Budworth) he was wrong from the instant he posted it, and it caused a big mess amongst myself and my other roommates (all in gambling and all read these posts), who thought it was all in fun and games. These are the same people that want me to rig up a game, and make a 5* pick with no merit behind it, drop half of their accounts on one side bid all the way up, and then the other half on the other side bid all the way up with a middling opportunity to essentially multiply their accounts by 2.25 times.

I'm not going to go about with all of that, nor do I suggest that anyone else do it that way. I'm convinced I will make more money the honest way of gambling, instead of cheating the system. Though admittingly, I had the Tampa/Orlando game won either way, and the situation may or may not come up again, it's not something I am making a big deal out of, nor a habit out of, as I feel my picks are good enough like they are. And as far as "Platinum Picks," "Diamond Doozies," or any other bullcrap out there, you all can keep it. As far as I'm concerned, I'm doing this as a service to you all, as I read no one else's opinions on therx any longer since I have a group of distinguished bettors that I side with who have welcomed me with open arms to their group. There is too much diservice to the game going on out there and it makes me feel almost embarrassed that I actually have gotten into the middle of it. So from now on, it's picks and picks only from me at best. I'll do writeups if I have the time, but don't count on them. I'm not correcting anyone on any other thread and I'm not chiming in anywhere else. I'll stick to my thread and answer any questions you all might have about the game or about the art of capping the game.

This way there will at least be one thread of solace on this board.

And Ace, PPeter, and the other good ones out there, this isn't meant to be harmful to you all. You guys also maintain great threads and are high quality cappers I have the utmost respect for. The people out there know who this was intended for, and a final note from me that I won't be engaging in it any longer.

Again, especially to Roxy, I apologize for any of this bullcrap, and promise a more pick oriented thread from now on. I'm not letting BrownsFan's mimic or Budworth's stupidity get to me any longer, and I hope that in time you can find your passion/addiction for the game once again.

Best of luck.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[LakersFan4Life]

hey afl i havnt been here too long but i really enjoy your threads the most you give us insight on a game alot of us dont know much about.i dont know about the drama but sports are sports you either know them or you dont and if i had to choose anyone for afl your the guy.keep up the good work dont let the few ruin it for ev1.

 

[AFLGuru]

Hey thanks LakerFan. I've just let all of this BS get to me the last few days. When it caused a bit of debate in my personal living area, it was time for me to vent. I feel a bit better getting it all out in the open after yesterday's pent up rage took over.

Alright, I don't want to talk about any of this crap any more.

Back to work on the week to come!

 

[AFLGuru]

Regarding this Columbus-Chicago game now that Columbus is sans-their biggest cancer...

I don't ever like the prospects of a guy that's never thrown an AFL pass against one of the more fierce pass rushes and overall defenses in the AFL. I still think this is a big trap game for the Rush, as I believe that it's an overall trap for a bunch of teams this week...

To review very quickly...

Orlando is coming off of a big win against Tampa and has this sandwich game @ Dallas before travelling to Chicago and coming home to face San Jose.

Chicago is coming off of a really big win @ Colorado and has this game @ Columbus right before Orlando coming to town. I like Chicago's spot better because A) they're playing a worse team than Orlando is and B) teams playing on the road for consecutive weeks tend to have a bit of an advantage of at least staying mentally sharp. At home or coming off of a home game tends to cause teams to have many mental lapses, as demonstrated by Dallas in week 2 and New York in week 3. Happens to someone every week. Though both Orlando and Chicago should both win the game, I feel as though Orlando is the sucker to go down this week, with a possible Nashville upset in the cards against New York.

Everything on paper has Chicago winning by 20+ in this one. Columbus is 0-1 at home, having given Nashville its only win in new-franchise history, and the offense has been terrible. The change at QB is bound to spark something. Though it seems as though in general, game one starting QBs are like game 1 coaches in that there seems to be an added flare to the game, I don't see that flare lasting for 4 quarters against Chicago. That flare for Dallas lasted for about 2 and a half quarters against Chicago in week 1 before Chicago turned the game back in their favor before coming about a yard short of beating the Desperadoes in Dallas. The fact that they have already been snuck up upon also leads me to believe they're going to take care of business this weekend.

All that being said, it's still a massive number to cover for Chicago (at least 10.5... haven't checked since the release of Salisbury became public), and on the road, the likelihood of covering that number is slightly decreased. If this number were still at 8, I'd recommend it. There's just better plays on the board than this at this number this weekend.

Still love teasing together San Jose and Chicago.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[NorthBayVillage]

Guru, I hope you will stick around. Your insight is much appreciated. Ignore all the other BS. Anyway, what is your opinion of Colorado +3.5 or the Under?

 

[AFLGuru]

Missed the line going up... Again, I'm stuck on campus and can't access Pinnacle from here, so if it didn't go up last night, I haven't seen it yet.

Colorado is +3.5 in a game that no one knows what the hell is going on in. Arizona may have Shredrick Bonner back... and they may not. He's eligible to come off of IR this week, but he's certainly not 100%. The Rattlers DESPERATELY need a W in a Western Division that is turned upside down at the current moment. Colorado is in big trouble at 1-2 with that only win being against Grand Rapids. There must be cause for concern that the Crush can't put away teams when they have their chances, since they could just as easily be 3-0 as they are 1-2. With Chicago having a very easy looking game in front of them this week, Colorado can hardly afford to fall 2 back to the Rush in a spot where the only guaranteed route to the playoffs is winning the division. Everything in my gut says to side with Colorado in this one, but that's always a bastard trip into the Snake Pit no matter who the quarterback is. Neither team has impressed thus far, and though I think Arizona is going to be left out of the playoffs, there's too much on the line for them in this one to tank it now, even without Bonner. It's a fair line.

Since I haven't looked at the under number, I'm assuming it's somewhere in the mid to high 90s. I can't recommend anything until knowing for certain who is QBing the Rattlers and how healthy he is... and we might not know that until after the game is over. Too many intangibles to bet this game.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

AFL News Week 3

Omarr Smith will likely miss San Jose's game with Los Angeles due to a knee injury suffered in the 2nd half of the game against the VooDoo. This doesn't bode well for us, though the Saberkitties are still clearly a superior team to the lucky 2-1 Avengers, who can just as easily be 0-3 if not a net recovery against Austin that put the game away, and a net recovery against Georgia that let the Force's lead get from 21-3 to 21-17 in a matter of about a minute. That sort of crap is due to stop. LA's luck needs to run out soon...

Tampa has replaced all of the fake rings from the 2003 team with real ones. The players apparently show no contempt, though if I were a player, I'd be uber-pissed still. How dare they give me a cubic-zirconium ring when all the guys that are still on the team get the real thing... cheap bastards... only in Tampa does this problem exist.

Anyone else see that James Baron was accused of spitting in Michael Trigg's face? No wonder they threw for a TD with 4 seconds left in the game when it was beyond doubt. Still, Mike Trigg: You're a prick. Nowhere was it seen on any tape that Baron spit in Trigg's face, and at no point did Trigg try to wipe anything off of his face. Bon Jovi's "they're the dirtiest team I've ever seen" and that the Kats are "a bunch of thugs that deserved to get beat" is an instant classic AFL line. If they had Classic AFL like they had ESPN Classic, that quote would become an instant classic. Bon Jovi is one to talk about thugs. Nick Browder was his first QB... and he's been in jail twice in his life... (that goes back to Pat Sperdeuto, Nashville's coach commenting that he didn't use jailbirds to start his team like Philly did after the game) Oh yeah, then there's the matter of the guy that got thrown out of the game... not a Kat... a Philly defender. Two personal fouls both on your team and you're accusing the other team of being thugs? Wow Philly, way to give yourself a black eye in only your 2nd year in the league. Pat Sperdeuto has a great track record as a solid guy in the AFL, as does James Baron and several other Kats players. Philly has a coach that is hated, a QB that was always known as a flake, and now an owner who knows nothing about football doing nothing positive to help himself out. Bon Jovi: You're one of the most known guys in the Arena Football League. Every time you open your mouth, people listen. Man would rather be known as a fool than to open his mouth and remove all doubts.

Regardless, if Baron did talk crap to Trigg during the game and Trigg took offense and scored that last TD, it meant more money for me.... Covered Philly in the screwed up line of +6.5 in the 2nd half!

--AFLGuru:toast: